Santa Clara Azores — Nacional da Madeira: Win probabilities, 10.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.9% |
| 12 | 71.3% | |
| X2 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.3% / 28.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.4% / 55.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.9% / 96.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Santa Clara Azores come into this Liga Portugal meeting with a slight but well-supported edge over Nacional da Madeira. The home side is favoured to control the balance of the match, although the assessment does not point to a major gap between the teams. That suggests a contest in which Santa Clara may have the greater initiative, while Nacional remain capable of keeping the game close.
The scoring outlook is moderate rather than open, with the most plausible scenarios pointing toward a tight match. A narrow Santa Clara win and a draw both fit the overall picture, so the visitors’ defensive organisation could be important if they are to take something from the game. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, making that aspect relatively uncertain. Overall, the hosts have the clearer edge, but Nacional da Madeira should remain competitive across the ninety minutes.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.