How it works

Every probability on this site is computed mathematically from bookmaker odds — not written by hand and not guessed by a language model.

From odds to probability

We remove the bookmaker margin from the odds using a power method, estimate the expected number of goals from the full Over/Under ladder, and calibrate a two-team Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Every market — outcomes, totals, both teams to score, double chance — is derived from a single score matrix, so the numbers can never contradict each other.

Signal confidence

The main signal is the most confident pick the model produces for a match. Its confidence is the model probability; the fair odds are simply one divided by that probability.

AI explanation layer

AI does not calculate or alter the probabilities. It turns the mathematical output into a readable match preview and explains the signal in context. Generated text is checked before publication and is never allowed to invent additional percentages, odds or guarantees.

Verification

The official prediction for each match is written to our database three hours before kick-off and never changed afterwards. After the match we compare it with the result. The public accuracy page shows real hit rates alongside the average confidence of the published signals — a single percentage without that context can be gamed, so we always show both.

There is no star tipster here and no invented expert. Just an automated model and an honest record.