FC Porto — FC Alverca SAD: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.8% |
| 12 | 87.8% | |
| X2 | 17.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.3% / 59.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.7% / 58.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Porto go into this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high level of confidence. FC Alverca SAD face a demanding task against a Porto team expected to control the match, particularly through sustained attacking pressure and territorial dominance.
The scoring outlook points towards an open game with several chances, although FC Porto are also favoured to keep a clean sheet. That combination makes home victory the central expectation, while the most plausible scorelines are 2–0 and 3–0, with 1–0 also a credible alternative if FC Alverca SAD manage to limit the hosts’ efficiency. The overall picture is of a match where Porto’s superiority should shape the contest, but the final margin may depend on how quickly they turn control into goals.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.