Everton — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.6% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Everton hold a slight but credible advantage over Crystal Palace in this EPL meeting. The assessment points toward a medium-scoring contest, with the home side given the stronger overall position. That edge is not overwhelming, however, and the match could remain closely balanced for long periods. The main signal supports Everton avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a decisive separation between the teams.
The scoring outlook is more uncertain when it comes to both teams finding the net. A draw remains a realistic possibility, while a narrow Everton win is also consistent with the available assessment. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, reflecting a game in which small details may have a significant influence. Crystal Palace should therefore remain competitive, but Everton enter as the side with the clearer advantage.
Other matches
Prediction questions
How are the match probabilities calculated?
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
What are fair odds?
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
Does the prediction change after publication?
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
How is AI used in the analysis?
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.