Arsenal — Coventry City: Win probabilities, 21.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.8% |
| 12 | 89.1% | |
| X2 | 16.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.2% / 53.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Arsenal enter this EPL fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the assessment pointing firmly towards a home win against Coventry City. The attacking outlook is also positive, suggesting a match with several goals rather than a tightly controlled, low-scoring contest. Arsenal’s superiority should give them the greater share of possession and chances, while Coventry City face the challenge of containing sustained pressure.
The expectation is not that both teams will necessarily score, as that aspect remains finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines are 3-0, 2-0 and 4-0, all of which reflect Arsenal’s stronger overall position and the high-scoring profile of the match. Coventry City may still create opportunities, but the analytical signal gives Arsenal a substantial advantage at the Emirates.
Other matches
Prediction questions
How are the match probabilities calculated?
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
What are fair odds?
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
Does the prediction change after publication?
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
How is AI used in the analysis?
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.