Velez Sarsfield — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 03.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 67.9% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.7% / 54.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.6% / 33.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.1% / 61.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.5% / 97.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Velez Sarsfield have a slight edge over CA Independiente Avellaneda in this Primera LPF Clausura fixture. The overall outlook points toward a cautious match, with limited scoring opportunities likely to shape the contest. Velez Sarsfield may be better placed to control key phases at home, but the margin between the teams appears narrow enough for a draw to remain a realistic possibility.
The scoring profile suggests that neither side is expected to open the game aggressively. A tight result such as a narrow Velez Sarsfield win or a draw fits the available assessment, while both teams scoring remains difficult to separate from the alternative of one or both teams failing to find the net. The main analytical signal is therefore in favour of Velez Sarsfield avoiding defeat, rather than a strong call on a decisive victory.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.