Santos FC SP — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.1% |
| 12 | 70.1% | |
| X2 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Santos FC SP and CA Paranaense PR meet in Brasileiro Serie A in a contest that appears finely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in an evenly matched outcome. That points to a game likely to be decided by small details rather than sustained dominance from either team.
The scoring outlook is medium, while the expectation of both teams finding the net remains uncertain. A 1:1 draw is one plausible scenario, although a goalless match or a narrow 1:0 victory for Santos FC SP also fits the profile. CA Paranaense PR should remain competitive, and the home side may have a slight degree of protection from playing at home, but the evidence does not support a strong prediction. Overall, a cautious match with a balanced result looks more likely than a clear victory for either team.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.