Red Bull Bragantino SP — SC Corinthians SP: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.9% |
| 12 | 71.3% | |
| X2 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.2% / 28.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.1% / 76.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.9% / 96.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Red Bull Bragantino SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight edge over SC Corinthians SP. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts have the stronger overall position, but not by enough to make the result one-sided. The main protection for Bragantino is the “1X” signal, which supports either a home win or a draw rather than a decisive separation between the teams.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match that could produce a measured number of chances and goals without pointing to an open contest. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so neither a clean sheet nor goals at both ends should be treated as the clear expectation. The most likely scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0, reinforcing the view of a close encounter. Bragantino have the advantage in the analysis, while Corinthians remain well placed to keep the match level.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.