Racing Club Avellaneda — CA Tigre: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.6% |
| 12 | 67.6% | |
| X2 | 55.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.9% / 82.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.5% / 97.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Club Avellaneda host CA Tigre in the Primera LPF Clausura with a slight but meaningful edge on the home side. The overall outlook points toward a cautious, closely contested match rather than an open attacking exchange. Racing may be better placed to control the game, especially with home advantage, but the margin between the teams does not suggest a straightforward contest.
Scoring is expected to be limited, with the most plausible scorelines clustered around a draw or a narrow Racing victory. A 1-1 result and a goalless draw fit the balanced nature of the matchup, while 1-0 to Racing Club Avellaneda is the clearest home-win scenario. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so the central theme is a tight game in which small moments and defensive discipline could decide the outcome.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.