Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.4% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.8% / 27.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS and Sao Paulo FC SP meet in a Brasileiro Serie A contest that looks closely balanced. Neither side has a clear overall advantage in the available assessment, so the match may be decided by small details such as territorial control, efficiency in possession and the ability to manage pressure during key phases. The moderate confidence level reflects a competitive outlook rather than a strong directional signal.
The scoring expectation is medium, with the possibility of a measured opening before the game becomes more open. Both teams scoring remains difficult to call, which leaves several plausible match patterns. A draw is a credible scenario, while a narrow result for Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS also fits the assessment. Sao Paulo FC SP should remain competitive, and the most likely scorelines point toward a match decided by limited margins rather than a one-sided performance.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.