Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza — Union de Santa Fe: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.9% |
| 12 | 68.6% | |
| X2 | 67.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 34.7% / 65.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.0% / 98.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and Union de Santa Fe appear evenly matched ahead of their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The available assessment points to a cautious contest in which neither side holds a decisive advantage. That balance makes the midfield battle and the teams’ ability to manage limited opportunities particularly important, with small moments likely to carry greater weight than sustained dominance.
The scoring outlook is low, so a compact structure and patient possession may shape the match. There is no clear indication that both teams will find the net, making the opening goal especially influential if it arrives. The overall signal leans toward Union de Santa Fe avoiding defeat, but the moderate confidence reflects a close matchup rather than a strong call. A draw is a plausible outcome, while a narrow Union de Santa Fe win also fits the available picture.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.