Fluminense FC RJ — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.1% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Other matches
Prediction questions
How are the match probabilities calculated?
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
What are fair odds?
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
Does the prediction change after publication?
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
How is AI used in the analysis?
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.