EC Bahia BA — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.8% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.7% / 47.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
EC Bahia BA face CR Vasco da Gama RJ in Brasileiro Serie A with the home side holding a slight edge in the pre-match assessment. The signal points toward protection for the hosts, suggesting that Bahia are better placed to avoid defeat, although the gap between the teams is not large enough to dismiss Vasco’s chances. This looks more like a competitive contest than a one-sided fixture.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with room for the match to develop through balanced spells rather than a consistently open exchange. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate, so the scoring outlook remains finely poised. A narrow Bahia victory is one plausible scenario, but a draw also fits the overall balance of the evaluation. CR Vasco da Gama RJ should remain involved, while EC Bahia BA will look to make their home advantage count without allowing the visitors to dictate the game.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.