Cruzeiro EC MG — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.4% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cruzeiro EC MG hold a slight edge over Mirassol FC SP in this Brasileiro Serie A fixture, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a match with limited separation between the teams. The home side is the more favoured option, but the available signal does not suggest a decisive advantage, leaving room for Mirassol FC SP to remain competitive throughout.
The scoring outlook is medium, with both teams scoring assessed as an evenly balanced possibility rather than a clear expectation. That combination points towards a controlled match in which small details could shape the outcome. A narrow Cruzeiro EC MG victory is one plausible scenario, while a draw also fits the overall profile. Mirassol FC SP should therefore not be discounted, particularly if they can keep the game close and avoid conceding early.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.