CR Flamengo RJ — EC Vitoria BA: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.3% |
| 12 | 84.3% | |
| X2 | 23.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.9% / 61.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.9% / 22.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CR Flamengo RJ enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a clear advantage over EC Vitoria BA. The available assessment points strongly towards the home side, with Flamengo identified as clearly stronger and the overall confidence level high. Playing at home, Flamengo are expected to control more of the match and create the more consistent attacking threat, while Vitoria may have to focus on limiting space and staying organised without the ball.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring rather than an open contest, and a clean sheet for Flamengo is considered likely. That combination suggests a match shaped by the hosts’ control and defensive stability, rather than by frequent exchanges at both ends. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, all reflecting a home victory without both teams finding the net. EC Vitoria BA will need an efficient defensive performance to keep the game close, but the analysis gives CR Flamengo RJ the stronger position across the main match indicators.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.