CA Sarmiento Junin — Independiente Rivadavia: Win probabilities, 03.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.1% |
| 12 | 68.1% | |
| X2 | 71.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.3% / 60.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.2% / 80.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Sarmiento Junin and Independiente Rivadavia appear evenly matched ahead of their Primera LPF Clausura meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence rather than a strong advantage for either side, so the match may be shaped by small details and cautious decision-making. Neither team is clearly established as the stronger option in this preview.
The expected pattern is low-scoring, with limited room for an open attacking contest. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, making either a shared scoreline or a narrow result plausible. The most representative outcomes are a draw such as 1:1 or 0:0, while a 0:1 result also reflects the slight lean toward Independiente Rivadavia in the broader signal. Overall, the fixture looks difficult to separate, with defensive organisation and efficiency in a small number of chances likely to carry particular importance.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.