Botafogo FR RJ — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.3% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 64.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Botafogo FR RJ and Fluminense FC RJ meet in a Brasileiro Serie A fixture that looks evenly matched. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That makes the tactical balance and the teams’ ability to manage key phases of the match especially important, as small details could shape the outcome.
The scoring outlook is medium, while the expectation of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced rather than strongly supported. A draw is therefore a credible scenario, with 1-1 among the plausible scorelines, although a narrow Botafogo FR RJ victory also fits the broader outlook. Overall, the hosts have a slight edge in terms of avoiding defeat, but Fluminense FC RJ remain fully capable of keeping the contest level.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.